Macro plays are almost over. The sooner people understand the better. The markets are strongly correlated at the time of crisis, or when they fear a crisis. Not much integrated when they recover. Its simple to see through an example - When sandy was approaching NYC, everyone be it rich or poor, elite or bourgeouis, were equally afraid and life came to standstill for all. Perfect correlation. But the moment sandy passed, correaltion broke. Each one went back to his own unique ways and their lives began to move at different speed.
So since the crisis storms have passed, follow the right stories now. I think infra will be the big game this year. Pick the beaten down stocks there
Sunday, January 6, 2013
People who read this blog wouldnt be surprised about anything that happened last week. So lets not disrupt the apple cart and stick to the targets mentioned earlier. While we set the thing on cruise control, its time for something else. I occasionally pontificate on behavioral dynamics of market and increasingly am getting convinced that money can only be made out of players with high conviction about wrong events. Against people who throw big money after crappy cards. I shall refine this thought through 2013 as to 1) how to identify and 2) how to profit out of such strong hands. Happy cruising